Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

BB 0xbb76…0ac4 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,898 (-57%) realized −$748 · open −$1,150

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip

Net edge-80%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$477per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$985now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-79.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-77.4%	-79.6%	0%	0%	-83.1%
≤30d	4	-77.4%	-79.6%	0%	0%	-83.1%
≤90d	4	-77.4%	-79.6%	0%	0%	-83.1%
all	4	-77.4%	-79.6%	0%	0%	-83.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-79.6%	0%	-83.1%
10%	-81.5%	0%	-84.7%
15%	-83.3%	0%	-86.2%
20%	-85.0%	0%	-87.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -81% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -77% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$201 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage

Net worth$985

Realized−$748

Unrealized−$1,150

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage39d

Avg bet$477

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	9¢	4¢	$1,954	$844	−$1,110 (-57%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	Over	25¢	20¢	$181	$141	−$40 (-22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$205	−$20	-10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$92	−$90	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$198	−$193	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$513	−$500	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	25¢	$185	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	18¢	$185	1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	23¢	$92	30h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Be	BUY	8¢	$103	30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	30¢	$102	30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	11¢	$95	30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	19¢	$205	30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$257	30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$257	30h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1,005	38d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY Yes	9¢	$1,038	39d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $985.22 · official $985.22 (match) · 11 history records