Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:38:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb76…4b5d other 228 markets active 6h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-18%) realized −$56 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%75W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$4
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$54
weather 16% +$10
sports 15% +$9
world 12% −$22
politics 5% +$2
tech 3% −$5
crypto 2% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -9.1% -17.8% 52% 48% -14.0%
≤30d 79 -1.6% -11.0% 49% 47% -9.5%
≤90d 85 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 46% -9.7%
all 207 -14.4% -22.5% 36% 33% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 33% -27.1%
10% -29.9% 28% -34.0%
15% -36.7% 24% -40.4%
20% -42.9% 21% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses75 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)207 / 228
History coverage162d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? No 62¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 57¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Under 59¢ 59¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
United States leading at halftime? Yes 45¢ 45¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia to win the second half? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 76¢ 75¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +193%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +177%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 -39%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +131%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +155%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +11%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 5h
Czechia to win the second half? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 5h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 5h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 14h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 87¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 57¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 38h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $5 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.82 · official $20.83 (match) · 368 history records