Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb73…1374 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 224L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$25
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 24% −$14
culture 8% −$9
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 65 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)236 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 236 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $360 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $313 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $494 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $162 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $401 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $236 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $663 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $198 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $438 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $250 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 58m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 3h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 3h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $56 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 6h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 9h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $56 13h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 15h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 25h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 34h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 35h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 38h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 40h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 41h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1245 history records