Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb73…4f95 sports 77 markets active 11h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$25 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days+$36
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$104
other 47% −$190
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +3.5% -6.4% 51% 51% -8.2%
≤30d 76 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 50% -12.8%
≤90d 76 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 50% -12.8%
all 76 -0.7% -10.2% 51% 50% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -12.8%
10% -18.8% 42% -21.1%
15% -26.6% 29% -28.7%
20% -33.8% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 37
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage11d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$2 +45%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $25 −$12 -47%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 19 $20 +$43 +212%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $20 −$15 -74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $30 +$5 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $40 +$26 +64%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 −$4 -14%
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$42 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $5 +$7 +141%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$8 -31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$35 +35%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +25%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 +$87 +437%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$65 +68%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$9 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$24 +39%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$52 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 13¢ $22 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $20 11h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $20 11h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 80¢ $8 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $5 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $29 16h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 16h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $63 16h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 81¢ $35 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $66 19h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 28¢ $66 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $30 19h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 20h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 20h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 22h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 22h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $20 23h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $40 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 23h
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 38h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 38h
Son Heungmin: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $20 38h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $20 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $42 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.62 · official $42.62 (match) · 174 history records