Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:49:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb6d…2951 crypto 369 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-0%) realized −$203 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%266W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$5
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$210
world 0% −$16
weather 0% −$2
other 0% $0
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 71% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 173 -0.7% -10.2% 66% 1% -9.7%
all 368 -0.5% -9.9% 72% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$203
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses266 / 102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)368 / 369
History coverage221d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $174 $173 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $172 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $186 −$14 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $186 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $371 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $180 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $184 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $184 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $182 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $179 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $183 −$5 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $185 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $370 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $184 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4? Jun 03 $185 −$2 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 4? Jun 02 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $170 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $168 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $338 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? May 31 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? May 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 30 $160 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 29 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 29 $188 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 29 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 28 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 28 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 27 $184 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 26 $369 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 26 $375 −$4 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 25 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $374 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $185 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 23 $192 −$7 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 23 $195 −$3 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 23 $195 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $193 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 22 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 22 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 21 $192 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $174 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $172 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 92¢ $172 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $186 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $186 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $188 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $188 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $187 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $186 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $185 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $186 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $186 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 98¢ $184 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $184 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $180 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? SELL No 97¢ $180 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $184 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? SELL Yes 99¢ $184 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $184 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $184 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $183 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $183 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $183 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.39 · official $173.39 (match) · 860 history records