Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb6d…6041 world 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% $0
other 21% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 54 +0.3% -9.3% 24% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage277d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $61 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $29 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $60 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $3 $0 +3%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 05 $6 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 04 $12 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $6 $0 -1%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Oct 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 30 $10 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $23 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $190 in September? Sep 25 $6 +$1 +23%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $24 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $27 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $2 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 40h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $13 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $13 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 27d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $23 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $6 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $29 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $13 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $16 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.98 · official $28.98 (match) · 157 history records