Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:07:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb6c…d38e sports 348 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,842 (-8%) realized −$9,867 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%191W / 154L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$1,144est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$338
7 days−$2,053
14 days−$1,117
30 days−$4,201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$10,641
crypto 8% +$502
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -6.7% -15.5% 53% 44% -21.0%
≤30d 117 -10.4% -18.9% 48% 44% -17.5%
≤90d 316 -6.3% -15.2% 54% 45% -18.2%
all 345 -6.0% -15.0% 55% 46% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 46% -17.5%
10% -23.1% 38% -25.4%
15% -30.5% 32% -32.6%
20% -37.3% 25% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$300 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,523
Realized−$9,867
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses191 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,144
Open positions3
Markets (closed)345 / 348
History coverage102d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ 52¢ $761 $771 +$10 (+1%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ 52¢ $424 $435 +$11 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 45¢ 46¢ $313 $317 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $216 +$289 +134%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $667 −$653 -98%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $302 +$438 +145%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,074 −$1,056 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $560 +$409 +73%
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 15 $65 −$63 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,792 +$975 +54%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $888 +$732 +82%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $236 +$425 +180%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $223 −$219 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $115 −$114 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $305 −$301 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $232 −$227 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $762 −$752 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $262 −$257 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $503 −$496 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $688 −$672 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $46 +$91 +197%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $367 +$184 +50%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 11 $298 −$294 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $99 +$163 +165%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $178 −$174 -98%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $634 −$624 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1,150 +$99 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $571 −$564 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $74 +$3 +4%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $227 +$73 +32%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $73 +$27 +38%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $1,443 +$120 +8%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 +$3 +82%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $1,232 +$279 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $198 −$196 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $308 −$303 -98%
Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 09 $238 +$319 +134%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $406 −$399 -98%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $545 −$138 -25%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $123 −$120 -98%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 09 $418 +$476 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $327 +$281 +86%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $781 +$345 +44%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $893 −$881 -99%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $639 +$527 +82%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $272 +$155 +57%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $2,015 +$720 +36%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $378 +$597 +158%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $800 +$301 +38%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $102 +$84 +82%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $435 −$426 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $279 +$159 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $80 31m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $5 50m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $345 53m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $206 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $567 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $96 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $222 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $216 23h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 30¢ $208 36h
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 30¢ $459 36h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 42¢ $401 40h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $969 40h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 44¢ $447 44h
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 43¢ $227 44h
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) BUY Bebop 26¢ $65 44h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 41¢ $46 44h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 40¢ $256 44h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $2,767 45h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $560 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $579 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $505 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $708 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $1,620 2d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) SELL LYON 100¢ $661 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $12 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $876 2d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 35¢ $4 2d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 35¢ $232 2d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 40¢ $223 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Virtus.pro 62¢ $115 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,523.33 · official $1,516.37 (match) · 743 history records