Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:34:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb6b…b073 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$378 (-30%) realized −$332 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$547
7 days−$547
14 days−$351
30 days−$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$333
world 5% −$63
tech 4% −$45
sports 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 14 +67.2% +51.3% 50% 50% -37.3%
≤90d 14 +67.2% +51.3% 50% 50% -37.3%
all 14 +67.2% +51.3% 50% 50% -37.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.3% 50% -37.3%
10% +36.8% 43% -43.3%
15% +23.6% 43% -48.8%
20% +11.5% 21% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$88 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$332
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage10d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 40¢ 1¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $38 −$38 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 25 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $212 +$78 +37%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$50 +976%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +471%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $89 +$35 +39%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$12 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 +$19 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $37 +$18 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $56 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $384 7d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $212 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 8d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $89 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 92¢ $105 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $51 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $38 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $25 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.86 · official $55.86 (match) · 33 history records