Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb69…68dc world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
other 25% $0
sports 9% $0
politics 8% +$1
finance 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -8.9%
all 24 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 4% -8.9%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage460d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $11 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $65 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $61 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +2%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 27 $5 $0 -4%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 22 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $6 $0 +5%
Will the Colts draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31? Mar 24 $12 −$1 -7%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $12 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $35 33m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 14h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $11 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $35 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $32 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $33 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $30 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 53¢ $30 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $31 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $16 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $14 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 25d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 95¢ $5 356d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? BUY No 98¢ $1 365d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL No $0 385d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL No $0 385d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL No $0 385d
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? SELL No $1 385d
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 91¢ $5 386d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 87¢ $4 387d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 91¢ $5 389d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 389d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records