Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb68…fe52 crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (154 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$246 (-9%) realized −$211 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day154.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$697
other 29% −$65
politics 11% +$18
sports 3% −$15
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (154 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 25% -44.7%
≤30d 69 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 25% -44.7%
≤90d 69 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 25% -44.7%
all 69 -36.6% -42.6% 28% 25% -44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover154.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 25% -44.7%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 22% -50.0%
15% -53.1% 22% -54.8%
20% -57.7% 16% -59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized−$211
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 50
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions39
Markets (closed)69 / 108
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day154.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $206 $215 +$9 (+5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $209 −$64 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $137 −$130 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$10 -32%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -71%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$27 +252%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$40 -63%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$10 -48%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$10 -32%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $116 +$55 +47%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $118 −$92 -78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +67%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$21 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$16 -52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$27 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$14 +136%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $18 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $5 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $24 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 27m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 11¢ $44 29m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 1¢ $28 30m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $144 45m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $46 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.92 · official $540.92 (match) · 367 history records