Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb68…533d sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 438d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5,101 (-51%) realized −$5,060 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$467
7 days+$467
14 days+$467
30 days+$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$2,806
sports 36% −$432
politics 21% −$1,458
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +27.5%
≤30d 8 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +27.5%
≤90d 8 +46.9% +32.9% 50% 50% +27.5%
all 22 -16.7% -24.6% 36% 36% -61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 36% -61.7%
10% -31.8% 36% -65.3%
15% -38.4% 36% -68.7%
20% -44.5% 27% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -56% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$445 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

438d coverage
Net worth$1,254
Realized−$5,060
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)22 / 31
History coverage438d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $600 $592 −$8 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Yes 14¢ 14¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $50 $95 +$45 (+89%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+53%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $45 $36 −$8 (-18%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Over 35¢ 10¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 −$16 -69%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $60 +$340 +563%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $354 +$169 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $203 +$155 +76%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$115 +57%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $207 −$200 -97%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Apr 30 $534 −$534 -100%
Chennai Super Kings vs. Punjab Kings Apr 30 $300 +$208 +70%
Warriors vs. Rockets Apr 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Devils vs. Hurricanes Apr 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 30 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? Apr 30 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Trump say "DOGE" during his Cabinet Meeting on April 30? Apr 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Oilers vs. Kings Apr 30 $500 +$454 +91%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Apr 30 $51 +$22 +43%
Bucks vs. Pacers Apr 30 $188 −$188 -100%
Delhi Capitals vs. Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 29 $186 +$102 +55%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 11 $2,739 −$2,739 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $7 49m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $154 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $24 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 71¢ $605 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina $9 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $51 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $354 16h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 21¢ $619 16h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $65 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 21h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $31 21h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $45 22h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 22h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $207 22h
Warriors vs. Timberwolves BUY Warriors $5 409d
Timberwolves vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 69¢ $534 417d
Warriors vs. Rockets BUY Warriors 39¢ $500 417d
Will Barcelona win on 2025-04-30? BUY Yes 60¢ $150 418d
Will Trump say "DOGE" during his Cabinet Meeting on April 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $50 418d
Chennai Super Kings vs. Punjab Kings BUY Punjab Kings 59¢ $300 418d
Oilers vs. Kings SELL Oilers 100¢ $954 418d
Clippers vs. Nuggets SELL Nuggets 100¢ $73 418d
Clippers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 70¢ $51 418d
Oilers vs. Kings BUY Oilers 52¢ $500 418d
Devils vs. Hurricanes BUY Devils 37¢ $150 418d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,253.89 · official $1,854.70 · 48 history records