Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbb68…9bf0 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$9 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$36
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$54
sports 15% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -23.4% -30.7% 33% 33% +22.8%
≤30d 13 -32.3% -38.7% 31% 31% -6.6%
≤90d 13 -32.3% -38.7% 31% 31% -6.6%
all 13 -32.3% -38.7% 31% 31% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 31% -6.6%
10% -44.6% 31% -15.5%
15% -49.9% 31% -23.7%
20% -54.9% 23% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$10 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage9d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $91 +$41 +46%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +214%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$40 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $91 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $71 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.31 · official $104.31 (match) · 23 history records