Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb66…6598 politics 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$4
other 32% −$6
sports 12% −$1
culture 6% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 84 -6.5% -15.4% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 79
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 85
History coverage392d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 06 $62 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Mar 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $65 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $65 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $131 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $133 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 29 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $129 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $64 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 15 $131 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $66 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $66 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $132 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $67 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 15 $68 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $2 $0 -11%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $69 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 26 $66 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 103d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 105d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 105d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No $1 107d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 107d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $61 107d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $61 109d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 109d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $2 112d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 112d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $62 112d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $62 117d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $0 117d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 119d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $64 119d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $64 124d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 130d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 139d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $63 140d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $63 142d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 144d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 146d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 146d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 148d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 149d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $66 152d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $65 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 355 history records