Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb66…db08 other 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%8W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$42
sports 26% −$26
politics 8% −$7
economics 7% −$9
crypto 7% −$5
culture 6% −$7
world 3% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 263 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses8 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage141d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $302 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $472 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $589 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 19 $305 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $182 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $363 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $344 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $107 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $243 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $440 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $714 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $730 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $553 −$2 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $374 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $214 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $294 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $159 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $213 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $473 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 3h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 7h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 8h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $52 13h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $52 14h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 15h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 17h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 25h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 32h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 33h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 35h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 36h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 38h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 40h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $52 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $52 43h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 47h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1472 history records