Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbb64…f0aa politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%2W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% $0
other 20% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses2 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage98d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $160 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 15 $80 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $81 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $81 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $80 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $80 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $80 37h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 14d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 14d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $80 22d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 22d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 22d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $80 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $80 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $80 32d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $80 35d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $80 35d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $80 39d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $80 40d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 61d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 61d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 61d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $81 66d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $81 66d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 75d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 75d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $81 84d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $81 85d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 92d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 92d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $81 94d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $10 94d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $72 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records