trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 33% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +12.5% | +1.8% | 33% | 11% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +12.5% | +1.8% | 33% | 11% | -9.2% |
| all | 24 | +8.8% | -1.6% | 54% | 8% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.6% | 8% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -11.0% | 8% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -19.6% | 8% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -27.5% | 8% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 48¢ | 46¢ | $49 | $47 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $32 | +$1 | +2% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 11 | $48 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 09 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 05 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 04 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 27 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Mar 24 | $2 | +$1 | +78% |
| Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? | Mar 23 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Indiana win the Big Ten conference tournament? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in February? | Mar 13 | $12 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 57-58°F on March 11? | Mar 11 | $12 | $0 | -0% |