Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb5f…db44 politics 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1
politics 28% $0
world 28% −$2
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 11% 0% -10.2%
all 38 -1.4% -10.8% 34% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage319d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $23 −$2 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $44 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed Al Shara in August? Aug 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 13 $7 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $7 $0 -0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 08 $3 −$1 -55%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 31? Aug 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 06 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $30 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $30 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $23 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $7 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $19 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $11 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $16 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $14 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $30 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $32 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $32 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 20d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.54 · official $32.54 (match) · 109 history records