Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb5e…ad2c crypto 365 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$321 (+2%) realized +$313 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%332W / 29L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$488now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$33
14 days+$36
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$109
politics 16% +$39
world 10% +$21
finance 9% −$48
other 6% +$191
weather 1% +$1
tech 1% −$36
culture 1% +$4
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 138 +1.7% -8.0% 94% 1% -8.2%
≤90d 358 +1.5% -8.1% 92% 1% -7.6%
all 361 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 1% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 1% -7.6%
10% -16.9% 1% -16.5%
15% -25.0% 1% -24.5%
20% -32.3% 1% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$13 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$488
Realized+$313
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses332 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)361 / 365
History coverage118d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 97¢ 100¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+3%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 95¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $80 +$4 +6%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $120 +$5 +4%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $120 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $120 +$8 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $120 +$3 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $120 +$3 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $120 −$11 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $120 −$28 -23%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 04 $80 $0 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 03 $160 −$6 -4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 −$59 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 −$40 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? May 29 $30 +$1 +5%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET May 29 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $80 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $82 +$50 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 28 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $80 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $80 −$31 -39%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? May 27 $80 +$3 +4%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $80 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $120 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $120 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 96¢ $120 15h
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic BUY Yes 96¢ $120 6d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 98¢ $120 6d
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? BUY Yes 97¢ $120 6d
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? BUY Yes 97¢ $120 8d
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $120 8d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $120 8d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY No 97¢ $120 8d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 96¢ $120 8d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? BUY No 97¢ $120 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 94¢ $120 9d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 89¢ $109 10d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? SELL No 74¢ $92 10d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 95¢ $120 10d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 98¢ $120 10d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 97¢ $120 10d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 97¢ $120 10d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? BUY No 97¢ $100 11d
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 96¢ $100 11d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Down 94¢ $100 11d
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 97¢ $100 12d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Up 97¢ $100 12d
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 12d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 91¢ $154 12d
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange BUY No 95¢ $80 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 27¢ $22 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? SELL No 51¢ $41 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? BUY No 97¢ $80 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.69 · official $487.69 (match) · 745 history records