Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BB
0xbb5a…1537
other · 50 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$97 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$284
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses20 / 14
Open positions16
Markets (closed)34 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day329.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 16 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$117
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 81¢ 62¢ $28 $22 −$6 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+17%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 72¢ 57¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? No 47¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 −$29 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $197 −$12 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $424 −$26 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $108 −$11 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $144 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $27 +$4 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $54 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$12 -23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $264 −$30 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $91 −$6 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $169 +$6 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $83 −$10 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $27 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $41 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $106 −$5 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $51 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $3 32m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 33m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 33m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 34m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 35m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 35m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 36m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 42m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 42m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 42m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 43m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $5 43m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 44m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $3 44m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $3 44m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 48¢ $3 45m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4 3h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 12% -14.0%
≤30d 34 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 12% -14.0%
≤90d 34 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 12% -14.0%
all 34 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 12% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover329.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 12% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 3% -22.2%
15% -28.4% 3% -29.7%
20% -35.4% 3% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.00 · official $284.01 (match) · 1945 history records