trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I | Jun 13 | $25 | +$4 | +17% |
| Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I | Jun 13 | $104 | +$21 | +20% |
| SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | Jun 12 | $1,101 | +$24 | +2% |
| Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Jun 12 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | Jun 12 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? | Jun 11 | $10 | +$49 | +474% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $200 | +$99 | +49% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,100 | +$71 | +6% |
| Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026 | May 30 | $889 | +$44 | +5% |
| Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? | May 30 | $1,832 | +$52 | +3% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 25 | $505 | +$103 | +20% |
| Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | May 05 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April | May 03 | $400 | +$12 | +3% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | +14.6% | +3.7% | 64% | 36% | -13.4% |
| ≤30d | 16 | +15.3% | +4.3% | 75% | 38% | -5.3% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +8.2% | -2.1% | 72% | 33% | -5.4% |
| all | 18 | +8.2% | -2.1% | 72% | 33% | -5.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -2.1% | 33% | -5.4% |
| 10% | -11.5% | 17% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -20.0% | 17% | -22.7% |
| 20% | -27.9% | 6% | -30.3% |