Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb59…fc3d weather 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%190W / 9L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$29
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.5% 91% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 142 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 199 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.35 per $1 lost it wins $16.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses190 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)199 / 200
History coverage125d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $277 $277 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $287 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $266 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $256 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? Jun 14 $136 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? Jun 10 $279 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $281 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $288 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 09 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $274 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $290 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $266 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $254 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 3? Jun 04 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 03 $262 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $268 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on June 1? Jun 01 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 30? May 31 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $284 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $214 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 25? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 20? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on May May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $277 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $287 30h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 44°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $266 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $138 10d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $69 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $256 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $136 12d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $151 14d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $45 14d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $65 15d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $279 15d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $281 16d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $288 16d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $262 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.67 · official $276.67 (match) · 435 history records