trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | +35.8% | +22.9% | 38% | 25% | +34.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +82.4% | +65.1% | 44% | 33% | +49.3% |
| all | 18 | +36.3% | +23.3% | 33% | 22% | +35.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +23.3% | 22% | +35.7% |
| 10% | +11.5% | 17% | +22.7% |
| 15% | +0.7% | 17% | +10.8% |
| 20% | -9.2% | 17% | -0.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $109 | $105 | −$4 (-4%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $47 | $42 | −$5 (-11%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 7¢ | $36 | $38 | +$3 (+7%) |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-33%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? | Yes | 27¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $2 | −$8 (-77%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? | Jun 05 | $24 | +$51 | +218% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $13 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Jun 04 | $20 | −$17 | -87% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | Jun 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $81 | −$56 | -69% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Jun 02 | $5 | $0 | -7% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 01 | $44 | +$187 | +422% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | May 10 | $10 | +$46 | +456% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 06 | $5 | −$1 | -15% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | Mar 06 | $10 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Mar 03 | $10 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Mar 03 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Mar 03 | $19 | −$1 | -7% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 23 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | Feb 22 | $1 | $0 | -43% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 22 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Feb 21 | $6 | +$1 | +22% |