Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb4f…9a01 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%19W / 13L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
other 14% +$2
crypto 8% $0
finance 7% $0
weather 5% $0
sports 5% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 32 -2.3% -11.6% 59% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.1%
10% -20.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses19 / 13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage468d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 41¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $11 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $11 +$1 +9%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 08 $11 $0 -2%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 07 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 04 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump cut Ukraine off from Starlink? Mar 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 59-60°F on March 11? Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $12 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $42 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 27¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 27¢ $11 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 8d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 8d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $14 357d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 98¢ $2 366d
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? BUY No 99¢ $1 385d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $13 432d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 432d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 433d
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 SELL No 96¢ $8 433d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.32 · official $37.94 (match) · 79 history records