Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb4d…442f crypto 746 markets active 3d ago coverage 569d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-3%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%324W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$52
14 days−$91
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -23.7% -31.0% 37% 32% -18.5%
≤30d 542 -11.6% -20.0% 46% 35% -12.1%
≤90d 742 -13.3% -21.6% 44% 34% -12.7%
all 746 -13.4% -21.7% 43% 34% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -14.5%
10% -29.2% 28% -22.7%
15% -36.0% 21% -30.2%
20% -42.3% 16% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

569d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses324 / 422
Open positions0
Markets (closed)746 / 746
History coverage569d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 746 Trades
no open positions (216 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3024 history records