Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb4c…6428 politics 10 markets active 7d ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-8%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$7
world 13% $0
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 9 -8.8% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.3%
all 9 -8.8% -17.5% 0% 0% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -17.3%
10% -25.4% 0% -25.2%
15% -32.6% 0% -32.4%
20% -39.2% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage86d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 02 $6 $0 -9%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $5 $0 -10%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $11 $0 -4%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $5 $0 -10%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $5 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 59d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 61d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.35 · official $2.35 (match) · 147 history records