Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb49…1c69 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 660d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$628per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1
politics 6% +$14
tech 3% +$3
economics 2% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 29 +3.6% -6.3% 62% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 3% -9.4%
10% -15.2% 3% -18.1%
15% -23.4% 3% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

660d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage660d
Avg bet$628
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? May 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 23 $14,316 −$15 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? Mar 23 $287 +$1 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? Mar 23 $333 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Feb 12 $159 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Feb 12 $199 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 12 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 14 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 20 $464 +$14 +3%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 03 $140 +$13 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Nov 28 $569 +$3 +1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 13 $257 −$7 -3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Sep 21 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 03 $17 +$13 +79%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Sep 24 $180 −$2 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $498 −$1 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Sep 23 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 23 $300 −$3 -1%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Sep 22 $88 −$2 -2%
Fed rate cut by September 18? Sep 18 $95 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? Sep 16 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris drop out of presidential race? Sep 11 $20 $0 +1%
Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? Sep 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? Sep 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Eigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch? Sep 11 $40 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 57d
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 98d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $14,301 98d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $14,316 98d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $287 135d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in February? BUY No 100¢ $333 137d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $162 137d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $159 164d
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $199 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? BUY No 100¢ $199 166d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $120 190d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 97¢ $106 208d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? SELL Yes 98¢ $152 208d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 97¢ $161 208d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 100¢ $211 212d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 90¢ $140 226d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 93¢ $155 228d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? SELL Yes 94¢ $250 228d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $257 233d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 95¢ $148 233d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 95¢ $53 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 89¢ $206 234d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem SELL Yes 96¢ $361 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $8 234d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 87¢ $7 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 109 history records