Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BB 0xbb46…ac73 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 42% −$2
politics 41% −$2
sports 7% −$1
culture 5% $0
other 4% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -3.2% -12.4% 9% 0% -9.7%
all 17 -2.1% -11.4% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage96d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $1,312 −$1 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o Jun 29 $17 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 18 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $4 −$1 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 29 $125 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) be added to the S&P 500 by March Mar 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $1,310 5m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 11m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $1,275 19m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 26m
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o SELL No 100¢ $17 34m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 44m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $844 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $359 1h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic o BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,205 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $18 68d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $19 68d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $8 71d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $9 71d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes $4 72d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $4 72d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 72d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 72d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $158 73d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $158 73d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $1 73d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 73d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 73d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 73d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 73d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 73d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.98 · official $59.98 (match) · 49 history records