Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:56:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb46…9773 weather 779 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%697W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day53.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$14
14 days−$19
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -0.9% -10.3% 88% 8% -8.3%
≤30d 542 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 772 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 9% -9.3%
all 772 +0.2% -9.4% 90% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 9% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses697 / 75
Open positions8
Markets (closed)772 / 779
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day53.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 772 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 27? No 90¢ 100¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? No 80¢ 73¢ $31 $29 −$3 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? No 89¢ 100¢ $21 $23 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 27? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 29 Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 3? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27? Jun 27 $26 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 27? Jun 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 27? Jun 27 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $67 +$6 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $18 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? Jun 27 $125 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 26? Jun 27 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 26? Jun 27 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 26? Jun 27 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 26? Jun 27 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 26? Jun 27 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 26? Jun 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 26? Jun 27 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $83 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 26? Jun 26 $24 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 26 $51 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $41 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $58 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $64 −$61 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 26 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 26 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25? Jun 26 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 25? Jun 26 $69 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? BUY No 80¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27? SELL No 90¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 90¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $26 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $31 5h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $24 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $34 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $26 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $33 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $25 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $33 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $26 8h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 96¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $8 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.51 · official $206.13 · 3500 history records