Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb42…6e09 sports 1028 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,589 (-2%) realized −$1,471 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%484W / 477L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day61.4pace
Fees−$986est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,047now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$779
7 days−$1,215
14 days−$1,672
30 days−$2,577
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$1,471
other 12% −$893
weather 4% −$285
world 2% +$70
crypto 1% +$74
politics 1% −$160
finance 1% +$53
tech 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 372 -6.1% -15.0% 49% 45% -12.2%
≤30d 961 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 48% -12.5%
≤90d 961 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 48% -12.5%
all 961 -2.8% -12.0% 50% 48% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 48% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 48% -20.9%
15% -28.1% 47% -28.5%
20% -35.2% 46% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$70 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$5,047
Realized−$1,471
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses484 / 477
Est. fees paid−$986
Open positions67
Markets (closed)961 / 1028
History coverage23d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day61.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 961 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? No 50¢ 48¢ $385 $377 −$8 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 76¢ $176 $264 +$88 (+50%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 49¢ 46¢ $264 $245 −$19 (-7%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 52¢ 98¢ $88 $167 +$79 (+89%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 52¢ 90¢ $88 $151 +$63 (+72%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? No 53¢ 87¢ $88 $144 +$56 (+64%)
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 74¢ $88 $123 +$35 (+40%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 74¢ $88 $120 +$32 (+36%)
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award? No 60¢ 99¢ $68 $112 +$44 (+65%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 55¢ 99¢ $58 $104 +$46 (+80%)
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 53¢ 80¢ $68 $103 +$35 (+52%)
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year? No 55¢ 60¢ $88 $97 +$9 (+11%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 64¢ 90¢ $68 $95 +$27 (+40%)
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No 51¢ 66¢ $68 $89 +$21 (+30%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 50¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 57¢ 72¢ $68 $86 +$18 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $89 +$92 +103%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +97%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $268 +$88 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $357 +$171 +48%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $89 +$81 +90%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $89 +$76 +85%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $89 +$83 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 +$75 +84%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $178 −$178 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 +$75 +84%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $357 +$129 +36%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 +$75 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $179 −$179 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$88 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $89 +$77 +86%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 +$75 +84%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $89 +$74 +82%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $89 +$72 +81%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $89 −$1 -2%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $357 −$181 -51%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $179 −$100 -56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $625 −$324 -52%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $49 +$38 +77%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $89 +$53 +60%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $89 +$74 +82%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $89 +$86 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $89 +$86 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $179 +$5 +3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $179 −$179 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $89 −$89 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $179 −$179 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $89 13m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $89 15m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $89 30m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $89 32m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 53¢ $89 32m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $89 37m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $89 39m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $89 43m
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 52¢ $89 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $89 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $89 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 49¢ $89 2h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY Wingman 50¢ $89 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $89 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $89 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $89 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $89 3h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $89 4h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Infinite 52¢ $89 5h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $89 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $89 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $89 5h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $89 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 54¢ $89 6h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $164 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $486 6h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $89 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $89 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 51¢ $89 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,047.01 · official $5,046.97 (match) · 2230 history records