Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb40…b81d sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$151 (+2%) realized +$151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate58%60W / 44L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$27
14 days+$39
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$198
crypto 6% −$91
other 3% +$26
world 0% −$3
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +5.9% -4.2% 60% 42% -7.0%
≤30d 52 +4.0% -5.9% 56% 40% -8.3%
≤90d 101 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 35% -8.1%
all 104 -3.1% -12.3% 58% 34% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -8.2%
10% -20.7% 24% -17.0%
15% -28.3% 13% -25.0%
20% -35.4% 8% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses60 / 44
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 109
History coverage187d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $28 −$3 -11%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $27 +$3 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $46 +$1 +3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$1 -25%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $8 $0 -5%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 +$3 +24%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$2 +24%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$9 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -61%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $8 +$1 +11%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $48 +$2 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $24 +$4 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$3 -21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $25 −$4 -16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $115 +$14 +12%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $44 −$15 -34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 $0 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 −$1 -15%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 +$3 +51%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $160 +$4 +3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $54 +$2 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$4 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 AND Portuga Jun 17 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +66%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 +$2 +33%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$10 +327%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 $0 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$7 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $32 +$14 +45%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -18%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $23 +$6 +25%
Will Kagiso Rabada win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $10 −$3 -27%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $77 −$4 -5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $77 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 83¢ $25 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $28 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $27 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $49 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $4 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $7 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $17 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $9 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $8 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $9 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $48 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $9 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $9 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $8 45h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records