Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb3f…a97f crypto 508 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$187 (-9%) realized −$297 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%204W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$174
other 13% −$96
finance 2% −$24
tech 1% −$2
sports 1% +$2
culture 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.0% -8.6% 39% 39% -9.2%
≤30d 147 -33.1% -39.5% 25% 23% -49.7%
≤90d 499 -13.0% -21.2% 41% 39% -22.1%
all 499 -13.0% -21.2% 41% 39% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 39% -22.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 33% -29.5%
15% -35.7% 27% -36.3%
20% -42.0% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$297
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses204 / 295
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)499 / 508
History coverage65d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? No 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +38%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 14 $1 +$3 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$3 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +145%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -9%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$8 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 23 $2 −$1 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 5¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- SELL 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.13 · official $5.13 · 1948 history records