Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb3e…b9c5 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9 (+4%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day52.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 41% -7.5%
≤30d 17 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 41% -7.5%
≤90d 17 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 41% -7.5%
all 17 +3.5% -6.4% 76% 41% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 41% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 18% -16.3%
15% -23.5% 18% -24.4%
20% -31.0% 6% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day52.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $12 $0 -1%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $32 +$4 +12%
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 16 $7 +$1 +7%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $3 −$1 -26%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $25 +$1 +6%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $25 $0 +2%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $9 +$4 +45%
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Jun 16 $8 $0 +6%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $14 +$6 +46%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $22 +$4 +19%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $24 −$14 -57%
Poznan: Hynek Barton vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami SELL Ilia Simakin 35¢ $12 1h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Ilia Simakin 34¢ $12 1h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 61¢ $0 1h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $0 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 77¢ $14 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 73¢ $14 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 68¢ $0 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 68¢ $14 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 52¢ $11 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina SELL Cameron Norrie 56¢ $7 2h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 54¢ $7 2h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan SELL Martina Trevisan 71¢ $7 2h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 69¢ $7 2h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Stefanos Sakellaridis 69¢ $8 4h
Dublin: Ivan Ivanov vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 63¢ $7 4h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 54¢ $1 4h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Gerard Campana Lee 54¢ $6 4h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 45¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 56¢ $2 4h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 56¢ $0 4h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Fabian Marozsan 74¢ $3 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Mai Hontama 56¢ $0 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Mai Hontama 56¢ $6 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Mai Hontama 56¢ $0 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 53¢ $6 4h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 65¢ $0 5h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 65¢ $15 5h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 59¢ $14 5h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 70¢ $0 6h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 71¢ $11 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records