Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb3c…07e9 other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 102L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$3
politics 30% −$3
sports 18% +$27
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 119 +1.1% -8.5% 14% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 6% -9.3%
10% -17.3% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×8.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 102
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage123d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Raptors vs. Timberwolves Raptors 35¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Timberwolves 56¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Nets Nets 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $204 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 22 $66 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $124 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 21 $70 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $59 $0 -1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $99 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 7h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $8 4d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 14d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 24d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $76 24d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $76 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $75 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $75 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $74 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $74 28d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $70 28d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 47d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 47d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 53d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $66 53d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $66 53d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 53d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 53d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 54d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 54d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 54d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $70 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $70 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 322 history records