Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb3c…f058 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$156 (-36%) realized −$159 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$160
14 days−$160
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$137
crypto 2% −$8
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -47.9% -52.9% 33% 33% -56.2%
≤30d 16 -30.5% -37.2% 38% 38% -50.1%
≤90d 21 -16.8% -24.7% 48% 48% -44.0%
all 22 -20.5% -28.1% 45% 45% -44.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 45% -44.1%
10% -35.0% 45% -49.5%
15% -41.3% 36% -54.4%
20% -47.0% 32% -58.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$20 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage99d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $2 +$4 +177%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 05 $10 +$9 +87%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 30 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 30 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $64 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $20 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $120 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $3 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer SELL Yes 99¢ $6 17d
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17d
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 35¢ $2 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 20d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 20d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 78d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 78d
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 82d
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 82d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.55 · official $37.56 (match) · 37 history records