Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BB 0xbb3b…4b00 politics 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$832 (+0%) realized +$829 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$1,692per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$22
14 days−$54
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$100
politics 40% −$110
sports 11% +$331
world 2% +$680
culture 2% −$8
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$5
finance 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -2.1% -11.4% 5% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 86 -0.9% -10.3% 7% 3% -9.6%
all 141 +1.6% -8.1% 19% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 13% -9.2%
10% -16.9% 13% -17.9%
15% -24.9% 12% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,663) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$13 · ×6.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$829
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage131d
Avg bet$1,692
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $290 $293 +$3 (+1%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $277 $277 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,866 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $3,267 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $3,600 −$6 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,373 −$5 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2,363 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,826 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,879 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,983 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,626 −$7 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,611 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,614 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,660 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,698 −$6 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,029 −$4 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $5,219 −$6 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,225 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $58 +$71 +124%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $701 +$2 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $4,118 −$6 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,619 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,008 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $77 +$75 +97%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $62 +$67 +109%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $2,760 −$4 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 20 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,430 −$5 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 19 $801 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $277 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 3h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 5h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 44h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 46h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $253 47h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $253 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 2d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,322 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,324 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $869 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $870 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,602 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,604 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,205 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,273 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,609 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,611 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,604 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,606 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,605 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,608 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,608 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,611 10d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,611 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.73 · official $569.73 (match) · 500 history records