Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb39…4add crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$200 (-4%) realized −$199 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%64W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$21
other 13% +$112
world 13% −$6
sports 12% −$345
finance 7% +$6
politics 6% +$4
tech 5% +$4
weather 4% +$2
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.6% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 3 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 13 +8.2% -2.1% 100% 15% -0.5%
all 74 -2.6% -11.9% 86% 7% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 7% -13.5%
10% -20.3% 3% -21.7%
15% -28.0% 1% -29.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$46 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$199
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses64 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage574d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $186 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 19? May 21 $184 +$2 +1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 06 $50 +$3 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026? May 06 $129 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $188 +$91 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? Apr 13 $64 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 13 $58 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Apr 13 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 07 $53 +$2 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 07 $67 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the US strike ≥5 countries in February 2026? Mar 07 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 24? Feb 25 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? Feb 23 $116 $0 +0%
Tether insolvent in 2025? Jan 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31? Jan 06 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 06 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 10 $113 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 30 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 28 $52 +$1 +1%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? Sep 20 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 19 $55 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 06 $55 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 03 $20 $0 +1%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? Aug 03 $25 +$2 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $29 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Aug 03 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through June? Jul 06 $20 $0 +1%
Will Khamenei leave Iran before July? Jul 06 $27 +$3 +12%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 04 $185 −$185 -100%
Dogecoin all time high in May? Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 04 $88 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Lightning May 02 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in April? May 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in April? May 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 30 $52 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran in April? Apr 30 $64 +$1 +1%
Lightning vs. Panthers Apr 30 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? Apr 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in April? Apr 28 $52 $0 +1%
Megaquake before May? Apr 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 24 $37 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 99¢ $76 1h
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 98¢ $98 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 1h
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $186 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 19? BUY No 99¢ $184 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $100 43d
Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $129 61d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 61d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 99¢ $100 61d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 65¢ $7 66d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 67¢ $181 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? SELL No 100¢ $64 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 98¢ $59 66d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 56¢ $65 66d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $64 72d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 97¢ $58 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $54 72d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $53 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $52 82d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $67 103d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $50 103d
Will the US strike ≥5 countries in February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $117 112d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 115d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $116 163d
Tether insolvent in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $50 193d
Will there be another US government shutdown by December 31? BUY No 98¢ $60 193d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $59 220d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $50 220d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $113 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $294.26 · official $294.26 (match) · 444 history records