Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb37…8b65 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$3
world 25% −$5
sports 20% −$7
politics 15% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 +1.6% -8.1% 31% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 32 +1.3% -8.3% 38% 6% -9.5%
all 40 +1.4% -8.2% 38% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 12% -10.1%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.7%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.5%
20% -32.4% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage528d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $45 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $47 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $115 −$6 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 18 $16 +$1 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $33 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $263 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $239 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $262 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 31 $236 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $236 +$1 +0%
Nicholls State vs. New Orleans Feb 18 $23 −$23 -100%
UMBC vs. Bryant Feb 16 $15 +$8 +54%
Utah Tech vs. Southern Utah Feb 14 $2 +$5 +186%
Longwood vs. High Point Feb 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 05 $1 $0 -50%
Will there be 400-500k rides on the DC metro on Jan 20? Feb 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Eagles beat the Rams by 7 or more points? Feb 02 $15 −$4 -26%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 23 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $13 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $15 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $4 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $6 19h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $24 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records