Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb37…5b96 sports 56 markets active 2d ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%24W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$6
14 days+$16
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$26
other 21% −$28
crypto 14% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +36.3% +23.3% 50% 50% +35.7%
≤30d 9 +14.6% +3.7% 44% 44% +0.1%
≤90d 43 +19.1% +7.7% 42% 42% -21.5%
all 56 +12.9% +2.1% 43% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.1% 43% -14.6%
10% -7.7% 43% -22.7%
15% -16.6% 41% -30.2%
20% -24.8% 38% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses24 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage104d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$11 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $9 −$5 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $6 +$10 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $4 +$7 +165%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$6 +116%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $2 +$5 +262%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $2 +$2 +100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $2 +$2 +83%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $2 +$5 +262%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1 +$9 +872%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $3 +$11 +369%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Pistons Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nets Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Apr 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Apr 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Jazz vs. Wizards Apr 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Apr 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $5 +$6 +128%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $5 +$2 +49%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 28 $6 +$3 +49%
Cavaliers vs. Pelicans Mar 22 $6 +$3 +52%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Mar 21 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
76ers vs. Hawks Mar 08 $10 +$10 +96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $13 +$9 +69%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Mar 02 $15 +$16 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 01 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 01 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $6 46h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 21¢ $4 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 78¢ $6 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 51¢ $4 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $6 11d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $1 15d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $10 15d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 27d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Cavaliers 100¢ $11 28d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 37¢ $4 30d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 31¢ $3 43d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 43d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 43d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 27¢ $2 44d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 48¢ $1 49d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 51¢ $1 49d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $4 50d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 54¢ $2 50d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 49¢ $2 50d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 34¢ $4 50d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 47¢ $3 51d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 27¢ $2 51d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 41¢ $3 54d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SELL Timberwolves 100¢ $10 55d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 10¢ $1 55d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 45¢ $4 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records