Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbb36…299a other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$54 (+5%) realized +$83 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$82
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$56
crypto 4% +$10
world 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +50.4% +36.0% 100% 100% +31.4%
≤30d 7 +10.8% +0.3% 71% 71% +14.0%
≤90d 7 +10.8% +0.3% 71% 71% +14.0%
all 7 +10.8% +0.3% 71% 71% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 71% +14.0%
10% -9.3% 29% +3.1%
15% -18.1% 14% -6.9%
20% -26.1% 14% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$9 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.21 per $1 lost it wins $5.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$633
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)7 / 17
History coverage9d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 30¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+25%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $84 $88 +$4 (+4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $136 $84 −$52 (-38%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+5%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 98¢ $40 $49 +$10 (+25%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 24¢ $35 $24 −$10 (-30%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+28%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-65%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $49 +$52 +105%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $65 +$14 +22%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $68 +$17 +24%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $80 +$11 +14%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 7h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 9h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 10h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $79 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $46 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 3d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 7d
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 7d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $3 7d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 78¢ $16 7d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $2 7d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $87 7d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 8d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 8d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 8d
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 8d
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.28 · official $633.31 (match) · 67 history records