Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb35…162d sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+5%) realized +$128 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%103W / 45L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$71
14 days−$12
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$82
other 4% +$27
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.7% -29.2% 55% 55% -31.8%
≤30d 56 +9.5% -0.9% 71% 62% -6.0%
≤90d 148 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 55% -5.9%
all 148 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 55% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 55% -5.9%
10% -9.8% 46% -14.9%
15% -18.5% 34% -23.1%
20% -26.5% 23% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$128
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses103 / 45
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage57d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? Yes 48¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$18 -36%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $69 −$67 -97%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +25%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -95%
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $38 +$5 +12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$9 +115%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +46%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$13 +180%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $20 +$20 +101%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $14 +$6 +40%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $10 +$10 +105%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $15 +$7 +46%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 06 $8 +$7 +97%
Devin Vassell Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $20 +$1 +5%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $24 +$38 +158%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 04 $3 +$3 +119%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +93%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5 May 29 $42 +$17 +39%
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 May 27 $15 +$4 +27%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 May 27 $20 +$5 +26%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 14.5 May 27 $12 +$3 +27%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 May 27 $10 −$3 -30%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 27 $11 −$5 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $4 −$3 -75%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5 May 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 May 26 $51 +$18 +35%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $10 +$2 +18%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $13 +$2 +17%
Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $20 $0 +2%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Dean Wade: Assists O/U 0.5 May 24 $11 +$4 +36%
Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5 May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $18 +$2 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $9 −$7 -72%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $14 +$1 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 23 $5 +$1 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes $2 2h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 3h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 3h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $18 3h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 70¢ $12 3h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $59 27h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $28 27h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 4d
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 4d
Will Hong Kong have between 475-500mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Hong Kong have between 450-475mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes $0 4d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 SELL Yes $1 6d
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 SELL Yes 71¢ $5 6d
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 SELL Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 SELL Yes 98¢ $43 6d
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 BUY Yes 87¢ $38 6d
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $5 8d
Julian Champagnie: Assists O/U 0.5 BUY Yes 74¢ $7 8d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY Yes 59¢ $12 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 86¢ $17 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 40¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 325 history records