Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:32:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BB 0xbb33…51ce politics 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,573 (+1%) realized +$1,573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%39W / 141L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,485per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$20
14 days−$100
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$61
politics 41% −$133
sports 11% +$1,739
world 2% −$20
culture 2% −$7
economics 1% +$4
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.0% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 59 +0.9% -8.7% 14% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 131 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 5% -9.2%
all 180 +4.7% -5.3% 22% 11% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 11% -9.0%
10% -14.3% 11% -17.7%
15% -22.6% 9% -25.7%
20% -30.2% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,089) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$17 · ×5.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses39 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,485
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $951 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,444 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $4,979 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $2,947 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $982 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $545 +$3 +1%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $964 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $172 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6,100 −$6 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,564 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,411 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6,251 −$7 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $773 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $5,719 −$6 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $72 +$70 +97%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $5,977 −$6 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $928 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $40 +$82 +206%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $979 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,945 −$3 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $25 +$15 +62%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $116 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $589 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,496 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $209 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $3,567 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $210 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $219 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $217 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $219 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,913 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,406 −$3 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $752 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $752 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $357 5m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $357 57m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $686 3h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $379 7h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $380 8h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 23h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 24h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $346 24h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $347 26h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $240 28h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $240 30h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $851 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $853 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $741 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $742 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $962 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $964 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $763 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $764 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $758 8d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $759 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $758 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $745 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $746 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $740 9d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $741 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 620 history records