Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

BB 0xbb33…bc38 other 4 markets active 4h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$187 (+4%) realized +$187 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,249per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-15.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-6.1%	-15.0%	25%	0%	-11.0%
≤30d	4	-6.1%	-15.0%	25%	0%	-11.0%
≤90d	4	-6.1%	-15.0%	25%	0%	-11.0%
all	4	-6.1%	-15.0%	25%	0%	-11.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.0%	0%	-11.0%
10%	-23.1%	0%	-19.5%
15%	-30.6%	0%	-27.3%
20%	-37.4%	0%	-34.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$180 vs −$87 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.69 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$187

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$1,249

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$611	−$98	-16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$1,025	−$107	-10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$1,025	−$56	-6%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$2,335	+$180	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$513	3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$917	3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$969	3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	5¢	$2,515	3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$611	3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$1,025	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1,025	3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2,335	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records