Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb32…438f crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized −$34 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$36
other 4% −$31
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -30.4% -37.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
≤30d 9 -30.4% -37.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
≤90d 9 -30.4% -37.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
all 9 -30.4% -37.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.0% 56% -27.7%
10% -43.0% 22% -34.6%
15% -48.5% 11% -40.9%
20% -53.6% 0% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$680
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $644 $680 +$36 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$19 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $46 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.82 · official $679.82 (match) · 26 history records