Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb31…0b4f world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,102 (-35%) realized −$11,009 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 41L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$746
7 days−$739
14 days−$763
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$5,571
crypto 41% −$5,399
other 5% −$78
economics 2% −$179
tech 1% +$51
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% −$100
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.9% -18.4% 57% 43% -60.3%
≤30d 18 -28.8% -35.6% 39% 28% -54.9%
≤90d 50 -25.3% -32.5% 42% 24% -47.2%
all 80 -18.7% -26.4% 49% 25% -42.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 25% -42.7%
10% -33.4% 12% -48.2%
15% -39.9% 9% -53.2%
20% -45.8% 8% -57.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$300 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized−$11,009
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)80 / 91
History coverage362d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $177 $176 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $156 $152 −$4 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 35¢ 16¢ $35 $16 −$19 (-53%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Yes 81¢ 27¢ $40 $14 −$27 (-66%)
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 25¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $27 $1 −$26 (-96%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 24 $52 −$18 -35%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 24 $892 −$779 -87%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 24 $225 +$73 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $73 +$7 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $13 +$7 +55%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -50%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? Jun 13 $148 −$20 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? Jun 08 $13 −$10 -75%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $210 −$171 -81%
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$13 +63%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $246 +$6 +2%
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary General of the United Natio Jun 03 $31 +$10 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 30 $18 −$17 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $217 −$116 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $141 −$107 -76%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $12 −$4 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $110 −$48 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $412 +$90 +22%
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026? May 16 $100 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $14 −$13 -91%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? May 07 $4 −$1 -34%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10? May 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $10,665 −$4,873 -46%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $1,175 −$154 -13%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 04 $10 $0 +0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 04 $53 +$7 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 28 $118 +$26 +22%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 26 $359 −$58 -16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $226 +$47 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 25 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? Apr 24 $20 −$6 -30%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 23 $88 −$6 -7%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $160 +$30 +19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $73 +$22 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 16 $328 −$328 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $6,214 −$3,344 -54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 9? Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Apr 09 $157 +$2 +1%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 09 $2,935 −$1,193 -41%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Apr 01 $150 −$101 -67%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 01 $331 +$262 +79%
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? Mar 30 $295 +$14 +5%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 30 $112 −$108 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 2m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $39 3m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $34 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $16 1h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 1h
Another pandemic before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $205 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 99¢ $298 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 14¢ $3 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 85¢ $31 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 15¢ $3 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 3d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $4 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $9 10d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 10d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $85 10d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 11d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $46 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 32¢ $6 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $766.32 · official $766.35 (match) · 510 history records