Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:17:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb30…e638 crypto 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$427 (-8%) realized −$427 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%78W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$682
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 25% -30.5%
≤30d 36 -30.0% -36.7% 33% 25% -30.5%
≤90d 179 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 37% -22.4%
all 179 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 37% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 37% -22.4%
10% -29.0% 35% -29.8%
15% -35.8% 34% -36.6%
20% -42.1% 28% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$20 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses78 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage83d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$10 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 06 $32 −$30 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 06 $40 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 06 $15 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 06 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 06 $15 −$6 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 06 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 06 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 06 $20 +$21 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 06 $13 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 06 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 06 $15 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 06 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 531 history records