Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb2e…ad55 crypto 437 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$89 (-0%) realized −$156 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate56%241W / 193L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$19
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$833
other 0% +$26
economics 0% $0
world 0% +$53
sports 0% +$29
tech 0% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +14.6% +3.7% 50% 50% -21.4%
≤30d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -4.9%
≤90d 47 -17.7% -25.6% 51% 43% -37.0%
all 434 -9.2% -17.9% 56% 48% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 48% -10.2%
10% -25.7% 40% -18.8%
15% -32.9% 34% -26.7%
20% -39.5% 26% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$98 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$156
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses241 / 193
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)434 / 437
History coverage243d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $100 $149 +$49 (+49%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 29 $10 +$6 +54%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $62 −$15 -24%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 29 $26 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 28 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9PM ET May 21 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 14 $33 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? May 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 08 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 07 $26 −$10 -39%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 7? May 07 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 07 $26 −$18 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 07 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 27 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11PM ET Apr 16 $204 −$196 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 16 $198 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 16 $945 −$945 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 16 $305 −$263 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 16 $115 +$43 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 15 $50 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 15 $337 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 15 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 10 $510 +$195 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 10 $433 +$232 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 10 $664 +$86 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1AM ET Apr 10 $1,812 −$1,354 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 10 $1,679 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 01 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 01 $306 −$306 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 01 $219 +$87 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 01 $160 +$59 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 01 $142 +$18 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 01 $155 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8PM ET Apr 01 $91 +$64 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 01 $40 +$51 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 01 $245 −$202 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1AM ET Mar 31 $217 +$33 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 70¢ $16 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 12d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 12d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 43¢ $10 24d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $18 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? BUY Down 46¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 62¢ $10 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 20? BUY No 59¢ $12 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 39d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 79¢ $10 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.35 · official $317.35 (match) · 1201 history records