Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb2d…ba13 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-10%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate20%14W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$28
world 19% −$7
other 18% −$9
crypto 6% −$10
tech 2% −$1
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -27.9% -34.8% 0% 0% -25.6%
≤30d 70 -15.5% -23.5% 20% 7% -19.7%
≤90d 70 -15.5% -23.5% 20% 7% -19.7%
all 70 -15.5% -23.5% 20% 7% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 7% -19.7%
10% -30.8% 4% -27.4%
15% -37.5% 3% -34.4%
20% -43.6% 0% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses14 / 56
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -10%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $9 −$2 -17%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 15 $38 −$6 -16%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 15 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -6%
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group C? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group K? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $30 −$3 -9%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Patcharin Cheapchandej vs Yidi Yang Jun 12 $18 −$12 -65%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -10%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -20%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $10 −$3 -35%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $15 $0 -2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 26 $5 $0 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $5 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $5 $0 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Damir Dzumhur May 24 $10 $0 -1%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $15 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $5 +$2 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $5 +$2 +46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $5 $0 -2%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $10 −$1 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 22 $5 $0 +9%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $5 $0 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $5 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 22 $15 −$1 -5%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 22 $10 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $5 $0 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $5 −$4 -84%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 22 $5 $0 -5%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: France vs Switzerland May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dell May 22 $5 $0 -3%
ITF Kutaisi: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Kevin Edengren May 22 $1 $0 -12%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $5 +$1 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 23? May 21 $1 $0 -12%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $5 1h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? SELL No 65¢ $12 2h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? SELL No 65¢ $21 3h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? BUY No 77¢ $38 3h
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 4h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $5 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 8h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 8h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 8h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 12h
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 15h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 16h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 68¢ $0 16h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 2d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 2d
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $16 2d
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group C? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group K? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group C? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group K? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group K? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will France be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $17 3d
Ebola case in the US by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
New pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 201 history records