Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb27…1aba politics 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-9%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$32
sports 35% +$21
other 13% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +422.5% +372.7% 100% 100% +372.7%
≤30d 1 +422.5% +372.7% 100% 100% +372.7%
≤90d 9 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 22% -19.5%
all 9 -9.3% -17.9% 33% 22% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 22% -19.5%
10% -25.8% 11% -27.2%
15% -33.0% 11% -34.2%
20% -39.5% 11% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage54d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$43 +422%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 10 $25 $0 +1%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le Apr 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $42 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 13d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 30d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 30d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Timberwolves 54¢ $20 35d
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United BUY Yes 99¢ $25 39d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY Yes $0 40d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY Yes $0 40d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY Yes $0 40d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY Yes $0 40d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY Yes $0 41d
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) SELL Lakers 42¢ $8 42d
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) BUY Lakers 55¢ $10 42d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42d
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY Yes $10 45d
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le BUY Yes $2 48d
Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia le BUY Yes $1 48d
Will Yuri Fulmer win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia l BUY Yes $10 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.95 · official $14.95 (match) · 23 history records