Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb22…22ed sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$5
other 23% −$3
politics 21% −$2
economics 9% −$1
world 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 165 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage169d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 18 $45 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $41 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 14 $46 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $120 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 11 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $41 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $189 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 03 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 26 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 26 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $34 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $34 9h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 15d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 15d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 26d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $43 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 40d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 40d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 99d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 99d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 99d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 99d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $39 99d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $28 99d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $5 99d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $6 99d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $0 99d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 99d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 100d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $38 100d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $31 100d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $31 100d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 100d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $39 101d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $44 101d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $44 101d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 94¢ $44 101d
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $45 101d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $41 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 581 history records