Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb21…19fd other 165 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$403 (+5%) realized +$404 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate58%95W / 68L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$409now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$116
14 days+$103
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$335
other 29% +$61
politics 3% +$9
crypto 1% −$15
world 0% −$11
economics 0% +$9
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +2.3% -7.4% 74% 37% -5.0%
≤30d 40 -8.9% -17.6% 70% 40% -3.8%
≤90d 156 -8.5% -17.2% 59% 41% -4.9%
all 163 -10.1% -18.7% 58% 41% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 41% -5.0%
10% -26.4% 31% -14.1%
15% -33.5% 26% -22.4%
20% -40.1% 21% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$409
Realized+$404
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses95 / 68
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)163 / 165
History coverage224d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$14 +5%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $80 −$15 -18%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $211 +$12 +5%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $181 +$22 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$1 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $202 −$7 -3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $401 +$48 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $35 +$4 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $25 +$6 +23%
Will England win? Jun 07 $342 +$63 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $205 +$19 +9%
Will Bhuvneshwar Kumar win the 2026 IPL purple cap? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 +$3 +13%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $440 +$6 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $385 +$59 +15%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $341 +$38 +11%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $300 +$12 +4%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $200 +$17 +8%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $201 +$31 +16%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $201 −$4 -2%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $200 +$14 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 13 $200 +$1 +0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $15 +$9 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $20 +$13 +65%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, May 10 $14 −$13 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 25m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $401 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $315 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $301 11h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 68¢ $66 14h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 82¢ $30 15h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 82¢ $50 15h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 99¢ $119 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 98¢ $101 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 95¢ $40 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 89¢ $30 36h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 92¢ $40 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY Australia 91¢ $40 36h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 89¢ $40 37h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 77¢ $20 38h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 94¢ $40 39h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 96¢ $100 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $40 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY England 90¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 98¢ $200 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 97¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $408.81 · official $408.81 (match) · 327 history records